Climate gentrification refers to how climate change and its impacts such as sea-level rise cause the displacement of communities. Sitting at a higher elevation than other areas in Miami and therefore less likely to suffer the consequences of sea-level rise, Little Haiti is desirable to real estate developers. According to a University of Michigan article, “As new developments unfold in this relatively flood-protected area, high-income households are moving in, driving up rent and property values in the neighborhood. Consequently, long-term residents of the community are priced out and forced to move elsewhere.”
In fact, the literature we found states that “…56% of residents in areas of low flood hazard may experience displacement.” This study also concluded that failing to address the risks of sea-level rise may exacerbate existing inequalities and unmanaged retreat (e.g. relocating away from coastal areas in an uncoordinated manner resulting in displacement of local residents).
The threat of climate change to our cities may motivate developers to create eco-friendly infrastructure. However, this may also pose a threat of displacement to local communities. This is encompassed by the term green climate gentrification. An example of this is the Atlanta BeltLine, a 22-mile long loop that includes parks, green spaces, dining options, stores, and multipurpose trails for walking, running, and biking.
An article published by Bloomberg points out that while this project succeeds in making Atlanta more walkable, it is also causing nearby homes in low-income communities to become much more expensive which will result in current residents moving into cheaper homes. The article points out the importance of policies that protect residents against sharp increases in property taxes and rent.
To combat this pattern of displacement, a zoning ordinance was created. The article by Bloomberg explains that “the ordinance moves to revise zoning laws that cover the BeltLine’s path and surrounding area to require any project of more than 10 units to set aside a portion of its units for affordable housing for 20 years.” Although this ordinance is imperfect, it is an example of the kinds of regulations needed to protect local communities. The Atlanta BeltLine emphasizes the importance of planning out large sustainability projects carefully, keeping in mind possible adverse effects to the communities around it.
According to a research article published by a Sustainable Development Law & Policy journal, “As climate gentrification threatens to displace residents of lower income areas in some oceanfront cities, it seems that it will fall on local governments and legislatures to protect those vulnerable communities. Cities will need to follow Miami’s lead by funding studies, identifying threatened communities, and implementing legislation and policies such as tax freezes and CLTs.”
Tax freezes prevent property taxes from growing for individuals who are at risk of being displaced and CLTs, also known as community land trusts, are pieces of land in areas prone to gentrification that are bought by community non-profits and are reserved for low-income residents. These are just two examples of possible policies that may help prevent the displacement of local residents.
An Atlanta teacher affected by the previously mentioned BeltLine pointed out that while well-written policies are important, it is vital that they are executed thoughtfully: “The [zoning] ordinance will only achieve its ultimate goal if it is created with a detailed plan to include those who are being excluded from the area now.” Including the folks that are currently being impacted by gentrification in the policy-making process is non-negotiable.
According to the Zillow Home Value Index, the home prices in Little Haiti are 11.4% more expensive in 2024 than they were in 2023. In comparison, the general home prices in Miami are only 8.7% more expensive in 2024 than in 2023. Little Haiti being at a higher elevation compared to other areas in Miami likely influences these prices among other factors.
Source: U.S Census Bureau “Profile of Selected Economic Characteristics: 2000.” and 2020 “INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (IN 2020 INFLATION-ADJUSTED DOLLARS).” retrieved from https://data.census.gov/
Above shows the salary demographic shifts between 1999 and 2020 according to U.S Census Bureau data in the four zip codes that encompass the area known as ‘Little Haiti’ in Miami-Dade County. Traditionally this area has been the cultural epicenter of Haitian immigrants and Miami-Dade County houses by far the largest Haitian American population in the country. The area, once built by working class immigrants, now faces the threat of incoming development due to its proximity to urban areas and high elevation. Understanding how the demographics are changing is important to tracking the conditions of traditionally lower income residents as well as tracking trends of climate gentrification. Over the past 20 years, the threat of climate change has become even more apparent and the cost associated continually rising. The above graph depicts the changing salary demographics from 1999 and 2020 with negative values representing a decreasing net percentage. There is a significant shift at the 35-49k salary bracket where values become positive onwards as opposed to the negative values for the lower brackets. Zip codes 33137 and 33138 seem to experience the most dramatic shifts in composition with a decrease in the lower half brackets and increase in the top half. However, zip codes 33127 and 33150 have a decrease in the proportion of households falling within the lowest wage bracket, without significant increases in the top brackets. The annual income within the area has shifted since 1999 to include higher proportions of those higher wage brackets and decreases in the lowest brackets.
Source: U.S Census Bureau “Profile of Selected Economic Characteristics: 2000.” and 2020 “INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (IN 2020 INFLATION-ADJUSTED DOLLARS).” retrieved from https://data.census.gov/
This second visualization analyzes the top 5 zip codes in Miami-Dade County with < 3 ft elevation level and highest amount of prone population within that area. Areas along the coast, as these zip codes are, tend to have surging property and living costs which favor higher income individuals. Within these areas, annual salary demographics for 2000 and 2020 were sorted into proportions within wage brackets from below $10,000 to $200,000 or more. The difference between these percentages from 2020 and 2000 are plotted here to show the percent change within each bracket across every zip code. Similarly to the evaluation of ‘Little Haiti’ zip codes, there is a distinct shift between the bottom half of income brackets compared to the latter half. For the most part, households in these areas shifted demographically to a higher proportion of larger wage brackets. This could represent either an increase in the wages of long-term residents or an influx of higher income residents into the area. Significant outliers from this trend are from 33140 and 33160 where there were increases in the proportions of the lowest wage brackets. These areas also experienced a decrease in some of the top half of brackets yet an increase in the highest bracket. Shifts like this are indicative of worsening conditions for the most vulnerable population with an influx of the most well-off individuals.
Sea Level Rise in Miami-Dade County
Link to Story Map with interactive visualizations
Using data analysis tools in ArcGIS Pro and NOAA projections of sea level rise, we found that by 2090, there will be 11.4% more land submerged below sea level in Miami-Dade County compared to 2020. NOAA sea level projections at an intermediate level, available through ArcGIS Living Atlas, assumes that there will continue to be large amounts of greenhouse gasses emitted into the atmosphere, resulting in 9°F (5°C) of global warming and a 1-meter increase in sea level by 2100. This is an intermediate projection, and sea level rise may be higher if emissions continue to worsen along with other climate change impacts. The NOAA has projected sea level rise as high as 4.9 feet (1.5 meters) and 6.6 feet (2.0 meters).
According to NOAA, the average sea level along U.S. coasts is expected to increase in the next 30 years (2020–2050) by 10–12 inches (0.25–0.30 meters). This 30-year increase is the same as how much the sea level has risen in the past 100 years from 1920–2020.
Miami Dade town elevation compared to taxable property value and number of homes.
This visualization explores the relationship between taxable property value and flood risk.
Note: areas higher on the Y axis are more vulnerable to flooding. Miami and Miami Gardens were outliers, with Miami having a 2023 taxable property value of 84 million and 6.3% of homes less than 3 feet under the high tide line, and Miami Gardens having a 2023 taxable value of 52 million and 47.5% of homes less than 3 feet under the high tide line.
Sources:
ACS 2022 5 year estimates https://data.census.gov/table
Miami dade property appraiser
https://www.miamidade.gov/pa/online_tools.asp
Creator: Caroline Nickerson