This blog post summarizes what we – Florida Community Innovation’s students and volunteers – have researched about the topic of climate gentrification, shares data visualizations we created, recounts our experience hosting a Data Walk about this topic in Miami, and shares ideas for how you can get involved to help with this topic. Read on, and then support one of the organizations we mention to help bring about climate justice!
What is a Data Walk?
A Data Walk is a public exhibit of data visualizations that invites discussion with the community. A dedicated team examines data, creating colorful graphs and images with written explanations, and then shares their insights with the community.
Attendees can explore the visualizations, engage in discussions, and consider potential community action items based on the information presented. The concept of a Data Walk was pioneered by Dr. Natalie Tucker of Marian University.
Last years’ Data Walk with the City of Gainesville resulted in data-driven insights that we presented to the city and Gainesville community members, for the sake of public education about city services like policing.
This year, we coordinated a Data Walk in Miami to shed light on how climate gentrification is impacting the community using the data visualizations included throughout this article. This was part of Radical Partners’ 10 Days of Connection.
Later in the article, we share the visualizations we presented at the Data Walk, as well as share more insights from it and because of it. But first, we have a summary of other sources that we drew from to understand climate gentrification.
What is Climate Gentrification?
Climate change is fueling a new wave of gentrification. Climate gentrification is the process where impacts tracing back to climate change exacerbate existing inequalities by driving out low-income residents from their homes.
Rising sea-levels, rising temperatures, and extreme weather events – all impacts of climate change – are causing people to move away from coastal areas and into higher elevated regions that are protected from these effects. This migration can lead to climate gentrification, where property values in these safer, higher elevated areas increase, potentially displacing existing lower-income residents and communities.
In fact, it is often the case that the victims of climate gentrification belong to historically disadvantaged communities that have faced economic and racial discrimination for generations.
In turn, this creates a predicament where those who are most likely to be negatively impacted by climate change also have the least amount of resources to cope with it.
One of our students, Olivia Zhang, made a story map of sea-level rise in Miami-Dade county. Below is an analysis in her own words.
Olivia Zhang: “Using data analysis tools in ArcGIS Pro and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projections of sea level rise, we found that by 2090, there will be 11.4% more land submerged below sea level in Miami-Dade County compared to 2020.
NOAA sea level projections at an intermediate level, available through ArcGIS Living Atlas, assume that there will continue to be large amounts of greenhouse gasses emitted into the atmosphere, resulting in 9°F (5°C) of global warming and a 1-meter increase in sea level by 2100.
This is an intermediate projection, and sea level rise may be higher if emissions continue to worsen, along with other climate change impacts.
NOAA has projected sea level rise as high as 4.9 feet (1.5 meters) and 6.6 feet (2.0 meters) by 2100. According to NOAA, the average sea level along U.S. coasts is expected to increase in the next 30 years (2020–2050) by 10–12 inches (0.25–0.30 meters).
This 30-year increase is the same as how much the sea level has risen in the past 100 years from 1920–2020.”
Effects of Climate Gentrification in Miami
A prime example of climate gentrification can be found in Liberty City in Miami. It is a historically black neighborhood that sits on higher ground, and it has become the target for developers looking to build more housing.
The new housing ends up being occupied by wealthy residents looking to shield themselves from the effects of climate change.
Another example can be found in Little Haiti, which sits ten feet above sea-level. According to a University of Michigan article, “As new developments unfold in this relatively flood-protected area, high-income households are moving in, driving up rent and property values in the neighborhood. Consequently, long-term residents of the community are priced out and forced to move elsewhere.”
The literature we found states that “…56% of residents in areas of low flood hazard may experience displacement.” This study also concluded that failing to address the risks of sea-level rise may exacerbate existing inequalities and unmanaged retreat (e.g. relocating away from coastal areas in an uncoordinated manner resulting in displacement of local residents).
A group of students at Florida International University produced a mini-documentary which further showcases the issue of climate gentrification in Miami.
Our Data Visualizations
Our first visualization was created by FCI’s executive director, Caroline Nickerson. It shows demographic changes in Little Haiti.
Caroline Nickerson: “I relied on the American Community Survey Demographic and Housing Estimates produced by the United States Census Bureau for the years 2022 (the most recent available online) and 2016 (an assumed change point of interest).
The geographic regions were the five zip codes in Little Haiti, 33127, 33137, 33138, and 33150, plus for Miami-Dade County as a whole. Five-year estimates were available at the zip code and county level, so that the 2022 estimate is based on the 2018-2022 time period and the 2016 estimate is based on the 2012-2016 time period.
To better understand the details behind the five-year estimates, see Chapter 3 of the American Community Survey Handbook, “Understanding and Using American Community Survey Data: What All Data Users Need to Know”.
(www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/acs/acs_general_handbook_2020_ch03.pdf)
For each zip code in Little Haiti and Miami-Dade County as a whole, the population percentage for the races Hispanic or Latino (of any race), Not Hispanic or Latino – White alone, not Hispanic or Latino – Black alone, and then all other races were calculated for 2022 and 2016. A difference was then calculated for each race definition and geographic region.
For example:
2022 Hispanic or Latino (of any race) population estimate / total population in 2022
Minus 2016 Hispanic or Latino (of any race) / total population in 2016.
As shown in the plot, the percentage of Black individuals in Little Haiti has decreased, while the percentage of Hispanic individuals has increased. This trend is also present for Miami-Dade County, but not at the same rate – it’s increasing more so in Little Haiti.”
The next visualization, created by Esmeralda Hechavarria, compares the home prices in Little Haiti with the home prices in the overall Miami area.
Esmeralda Hechavarria: “According to the Zillow Home Value Index, the home prices in Little Haiti are 11.4% more expensive in 2024 than they were in 2023. In comparison, the general home prices in Miami are only 8.7% more expensive in 2024 than in 2023. As we know from other articles, Little Haiti being at a higher elevation compared to other areas in Miami likely influences these prices among other factors.”
FCI volunteer and UF recent grad, Libbe Greenberg, created the next two data visualizations and presented them at the Data Walk. The first illustrates salary changes in Little Haiti – which is a higher elevated area – and the second illustrates salary changes in lower elevated areas. Below is her elaboration of these visualizations.
Libbe Greenberg: “The following graph shows the salary demographic shifts between 1999 and 2020 according to U.S Census Bureau data in the four zip codes that encompass the area known as ‘Little Haiti’ in Miami-Dade County.
Before I get into the explanation of my visualization, I want to give a bit of context that I learned about! Traditionally this area has been the cultural epicenter of Haitian immigrants and Miami-Dade County houses by far the largest Haitian American population in the country, though this has been a tumultuous relationship, with Haitians facing continuous discrimination and unfair stereotyping.
The area, once built by working class immigrants, now faces the threat of incoming development due to its proximity to urban areas and high elevation.
Along with this, many Haitian Americans have been excluded from the conversation, due to ‘redlining’ purposefully excluding black and brown voices. Understanding how the demographics are changing is important to tracking the conditions of traditionally lower income residents, as well as tracking trends of climate gentrification.”
Libbe Greenberg: “The above graph depicts the changing salary demographics from 1999 and 2020 with negative values representing salary decreases and positive values representing salary increases. There is a significant shift at the 25-49k annual salary brackets where values begin to shift towards becoming positive for the higher brackets, as opposed to the negative values for those lower income brackets.
Zip codes 33137 and 33138 seem to experience the most dramatic shifts in composition, with a decrease in the lower half brackets and increase in the top half. However, zip codes 33127 and 33150 have a decrease in the proportion of households falling within the lowest wage bracket, without significant increases in the top brackets.
The annual income within the area has shifted since 1999 to include higher proportions of those higher wage brackets, and decreases in the lowest brackets. A shift like this needs to be coupled with qualitative data to understand how the quality of life has changed alongside wages as well as the demographic dynamics in those areas. These areas are significant to consider given their history, prone population, and comparably high elevation status.
What this all means is that there is a higher proportion of people in higher income brackets in Little Haiti than in the past, indicating that the area is becoming wealthier.”
Source: U.S Census Bureau “Profile of Selected Economic Characteristics: 2000.” and 2020 “INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (IN 2020 INFLATION-ADJUSTED DOLLARS).” retrieved from https://data.census.gov/
Libbe Greenberg: “Climate change in Miami Dade County is not a new issue: according to current scientific understanding, more than half of its residents will face pressure to move inland towards higher grounds.
The following visualization analyzes 5 zip codes in Miami-Dade County that have some of the highest numbers of flood-prone population within that area. Areas along the coast, as these zip codes are, have traditionally had high property value and living costs, which favor higher income individuals.
Recent calculations show that Miami Dade as a whole has 21% higher cost of living compared to the national average. In order to dive deeper, annual salary demographics for households in years 2000 and 2020 were extracted from US census data. That data was then organized as proportions within defined wage brackets, aligned with the original data from the census.
The percentages from 2000 were then subtracted from those of 2020 in order to show the changing proportions in each income bracket for each of the 5 selected zip codes.”
”Similar to the evaluation of ‘Little Haiti’ zip codes, in the most vulnerable zip codes according to elevation, there is a distinct shift between the bottom half of income brackets compared to the latter half. For the most part, households in these areas shifted demographically to a higher proportion of larger wage brackets. This could represent either an increase in the wages of long-term residents or an influx of higher income residents into the area.
Significant outliers from this trend are from zip codes 33140 and 33160, where there were increases in the proportions of the lowest wage brackets. These areas also experienced a decrease in some of the top half of brackets, yet an increase in the highest bracket. Shifts like this are indicative of worsening conditions for the most vulnerable population, with an influx of the most well-off individuals. The shifts in both of those zip codes are minimal compared to the others which shows that there has been minimal change. However, you would hope to see more change and progression over the course of twenty years.
As time progresses, areas less than 3 ft above sea level will likely become more and more dangerous due to rising sea level, and property values may plummet due to their adjusted future livability.
Ultimately, my visualization could be interpreted as indicating that as a whole there is some progression towards these areas having higher, more livable wages. However, the rate at which these effects are happening do not always seem to happen at the same speed for those at the top versus the bottom of the salary spectrum. This research is limited in scope due to the narrow sample size. With a larger sample size, we may be able to learn more about the changing income dynamics in Miami Dade and how certain areas may be more at risk for climate related gentrification.
When monitoring how income distributions in different areas change, and how livable an area is based on upcoming climate impacts, it is important for us to ask: when a historic community can no longer afford to live in their homes, where will they go?“
Source: U.S Census Bureau “Profile of Selected Economic Characteristics: 2000.” and 2020 “INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (IN 2020 INFLATION-ADJUSTED DOLLARS).” retrieved from https://data.census.gov/
Our last visualization was made by Nicole Dan, who is the Vice-President of FCI’s board. It illustrates the average taxable property value in lower-elevated areas.
Nicole Dan: “This visualization explores the relationship between average taxable property value and flood risk. According to the Florida Department of Revenue, “The taxable value is the assessed value minus exemptions and is the value the tax collector uses to calculate the taxes due.”
Those exemptions could include the homestead exemption, which can lower the taxable value of a property by up to $50,000 for homeowners who make the property their permanent residence.
Thus, this means that taxable property value is not necessarily the amount that the property will sell for if it was listed today, but it’s one of the best indicators that we have of how much a property is worth.
Towns with fewer households within 3 feet of the high tide line also had lower average taxable property value per household. Indian Creek, Medley, and Golden Beach are outliers and were removed from this visualization due to a low number of households and high average property value.
This shows that at least for now, towns with a higher elevation still have a lower average taxable property value, suggesting that the effects of climate gentrification are not yet felt across all towns in Miami.
However, this data is limited because it does not look at the sale value of a property, but rather the taxable property value. This might not be the best data for this analysis because it does not reflect the real time value of a property, but it does reflect the property value data that is available in spreadsheet format over time on the Miami-Dade Property Appraiser website.
For further analysis, we could use data on sales in Miami-Dade in the past year to see if the trend in sale prices in neighborhoods over time. Opportunities for further research could include analysis of owners and renters in Miami and homestead tax exemptions, which can be used for property occupied by the homeowner.
Taxable property value for each town is based on publicly posted Miami-Dade Property Appraiser data and the number of households is based on Census American Community Survey 5 Year estimates for 2022. Data on distance of locations to the high tide line was downloaded from the Surging Seas Risk Finder.”
At the Data Walk
At the Data Walk, we presented the above items to the community, and even got a little artistic and added some fun paint flourishes that day to our paper visualizations!
The risks of green climate gentrification
After we presented our visualizations, we engaged in an invigorating community conversation. Below are some of the notes our attendees wrote on canvases.
The threat of climate change to our cities may motivate developers to create eco-friendly infrastructure. In fact, attendees at our data walk, where we presented the above visualizations made comments including, “We need to encourage green innovation and entrepreneurship”, “How do we make green sexy and equitable?”, and “Around my community, I see too many cars and not enough trails/walkways as alternatives to cars.”
As we reflected on attendee comments after the Data Walk, we concluded that it is important to be thoughtful when creating eco-friendly developments, as this may also pose a threat of displacement to local communities. This is encompassed by the term green climate gentrification, as explained by the below linked articles.
An example of green climate gentrification is the Atlanta BeltLine, a 22-mile long loop that includes parks, green spaces, dining options, stores, and multipurpose trails for walking, running, and biking.
An article published by Bloomberg points out that while this project succeeds in making Atlanta more walkable, it is also causing nearby homes in low-income communities to become much more expensive, which will result in current residents moving into cheaper homes. The article points out the importance of policies that protect residents against sharp increases in property taxes and rent.
To combat this pattern of displacement, a zoning ordinance was created. The article by Bloomberg explains that “the ordinance moves to revise zoning laws that cover the BeltLine’s path and surrounding area to require any project of more than 10 units to set aside a portion of its units for affordable housing for 20 years.”
Although this ordinance is imperfect, it is an example of the kinds of regulations needed to protect local communities. The Atlanta BeltLine emphasizes the importance of planning out large sustainability projects carefully, keeping in mind possible adverse effects to the communities around it.
In the Bloomberg article, an Atlanta teacher affected by the BeltLine pointed out that while well-written policies are important, it is vital that they are executed thoughtfully: “The [zoning] ordinance will only achieve its ultimate goal if it is created with a detailed plan to include those who are being excluded from the area now.” Including the folks that are currently being impacted by gentrification in the policy-making process is non-negotiable.
What are possible solutions?
After the Data Walk, we couldn’t help but want to find possible solutions to the problem of climate gentrification – because we care about people in communities like Little Haiti that might be facing climate gentrification, and we want to be good friends and neighbors.
According to a research article published by a Sustainable Development Law & Policy journal, “As climate gentrification threatens to displace residents of lower income areas in some oceanfront cities, it seems that it will fall on local governments and legislatures to protect those vulnerable communities. Cities will need to follow Miami’s lead by funding studies, identifying threatened communities, and implementing legislation and policies such as tax freezes and CLTs.”
Tax freezes prevent property taxes from growing for individuals who are at risk of being displaced and CLTs, also known as community land trusts, are pieces of land in areas prone to gentrification that are bought by community non-profits and are reserved for low-income residents.
These are just two examples of possible policies that may help prevent the displacement of local residents.
What can you do about this problem?
- Educate Yourself and Others: Share this blog post and other resources on climate gentrification with your network. Some resources about climate gentrification that we recommend sharing include Climate Gentrification: From Theory to Empiricism in Miami-Dade County, Florida by Jesse Keenan et al (2018), and the book Climate Justice: Hope, Resilience, and the Fight for a Sustainable Future by Mary Robinson.
- Support Local Initiatives: Donate to or volunteer with organizations that focus on climate justice and affordable housing. Some examples include the Climate Justice Alliance, Right to the City Alliance, and the Florida Housing Coalition. Organizations that attended our data walk who would be great to get involved with include the CLEO Institute, the Miami Climate Alliance, and Dream in Green.
- Advocate for Policy Change: Contact your local representatives to support policies that address both climate resilience and housing equity such as the ones mentioned above. If you’re looking for policies to recommend, consider the expansion of green infrastructure in vulnerable communities, and anti-displacement protections such as increasing the housing supply.
- Provide us with feedback: If you are a community member impacted by climate gentrification, let us know how we can help! If you are part of a community organization, let us know how we can work together! Leave us a reply below.
After our data walk...
Following the data walk, we were able to present our visualizations to the Miami-Dade Government Tech Hub. We also sent this post to them, after a summer of reading about this topic and thinking deeply about it!
We will continue to monitor comments on this post to be responsive in regard to this issue. We view our role as student leaders and volunteers to be disseminating information about this issue and uplifting the organizations doing good work. If you are part of one of those organizations, please leave a comment on this post so we can spread the word about you -- in our newsletter, on social media, and in community meetings.
Have questions or want to get more involved? Contact us at info@floridainnovation.org or follow us on Instagram @floridacommunityinnovation.
About the Authors
Esmeralda Hechavarria is a fourth-year Psychology and Statistics Double Major. She is thrilled to be part of FCI as she aims to utilize her data science skills to create positive change in her community. Esmeralda is particularly passionate about promoting equitable access to education for students of all backgrounds and advocating for the LGBTQ+ community! She was the lead author of this post.
Olivia Zhang is a Geography and Data Science student passionate about supporting community-centered initiatives through research and data storytelling. She is interested in applying tech for social good because of the opportunities to build connections and share stories.
Nicole Dan is the Vice-President of FCI's board. At FCI, she volunteers her time quality-checking FCI's external outreach and publications materials. She currently works at the National Telecommunications and Information Administration as a Broadband Programs Specialist.
Libbe Greenberg graduated from the University of Florida in 2023 with degrees in Anthropology and Political Science. She has been working with FCI since fall 2022, working to increase accessibility to the information and services that matter most. Climate gentrification as well as the other issues that FCI tackles are important to her because they impact people’s lives on a daily basis and they can not be ignored any longer. In her career she hopes to represent those that are not at the table and work towards a future where they are heard, seen, and appreciated.
Caroline Nickerson is the Executive Director and co-founder of Florida Community Innovation (FCI), a civic technology nonprofit. Caroline empowers over 50 student innovators from more than five different universities to build social services technologies, engage in research projects, and conduct public service efforts to benefit Floridians, including the Florida Resource Map, which promises to be the first-of-its-kind digital access point connecting Floridians to food banks, job resources, and more. Caroline is also a PhD candidate at the University of Florida and a citizen science consultant at SciStarter.
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